The Situation

Late on Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike on the village of Jouaiyya (Jouya) in southern Lebanon killed a senior Hezbollah commander and three Hezbollah militants. Hezbollah confirmed that the senior commander killed was Taleb Abdallah, also known as Abu Taleb. The group retaliated on Wednesday by firing rockets into northern Israel and the Golan Heights. According to a social media post by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), approximately 160 projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon to Israel. Some of the rockets were intercepted by Israeli defence systems whereas others fell in northern Israel where they caused fires.

The IDF claim to have killed over 320 Hezbollah militants in total, since the hostilities intensified across the Israel-Lebanon border amid the ongoing war in Gaza. One anonymous source claims that Taleb Abdallah was Hezbollah’s commander for the central region of the southern border strip of Lebanon. It is unclear to what extent his death will impact Hezbollah’s operations. His funeral is expected to take place later on Wednesday.

Analysis

Key Judgement 1: Tit-for-tat strikes will continue between Israel and Hezbollah

For the past eight months since the outbreak of war in Gaza, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border. These tit-for-tat military strikes are highly likely to continue, with neither side incentivised to back down. Israel's attacks have mostly focused on border regions up to 15 kilometres deep, with some exceptions like deeper strikes in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and southern Beirut suburbs. Conversely, Hezbollah has broadened its targets to include the Golan Heights, which are strategically valuable due to their topography.

Key Judgement 2: Targeting by both sides will likely remain limited to military targets to avoid major escalation

Thus far, Israel and Hezbollah have mostly limited their strikes to military targets. When civilians have been killed, both sides have exchanged messages through the UN Interim Force to limit further escalation. A protracted engagement against Hezbollah, like that of the 2006 Lebanon War, would be disastrous for Israel, which is already tied up in Gaza. For Hezbollah, Israel’s preoccupation in Gaza does open opportunities to attack Israel’s northern front, but the group is also at pains to avoid the kind of escalation that would lead to a full-scale war and the destruction of their home base in Lebanon. In the next few months, it is likely that both sides will limit their objectives to degrading each other’s military capabilities.