The situation

On Wednesday 19 June, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, threatened war with the Republic of Cyprus if it allows Israel to conduct military operations against Hezbollah from Cypriot soil.

'Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,' said Nasrallah during a televised speech.

Since Hamas' terrorist attack against Israel on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has launched rocket and drone strikes into Israel. The Israeli military has responded with air strikes and claims to have killed hundreds of Hezbollah militants. Nevertheless, further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah has thus far been averted amid Israel's more intense military operations in Gaza.

In recent years, Israel and Cyprus have deepened military cooperation. Both countries regularly participate in joint military training drills and have signed several military procurement agreements.

The Cypriot president Nikos Christodoulides responded to the threats on Wednesday, saying: 'Cyprus remains uninvolved in any military conflicts and positions itself as part of the solution rather than the problem.'

'Such statements are not pleasant, but they do not reflect reality. Cyprus is not participating in any military engagements,' Christodoulides added.

Why it matters

• The Israel-Hezbollah conflict could spill over into the Mediterranean. Hezbollah might strike Israeli military vessels in the Mediterranean or bases on Cypriot soil it believes are being used by Israeli forces in some capacity. In the past, Hezbollah has also falsely accused the British - who have a military presence in Cyprus - of launching air defence missiles to intercept drones launched by Iran during the 13 April offensive. A strike against British military assets on the island is a possibility.
• If Hezbollah attacks targets in the Mediterranean, commercial shipping could be threatened. Strikes by Hezbollah against maritime targets in Cypriot waters and the wider Mediterranean could resemble those conducted by the Houthis in the Red Sea. Drones and missiles could be launched at shipping vessels or humanitarian aid ships travelling between Cyprus and Gaza. Iran, which backs Hezbollah, has called for a joint-Islamic blockade of energy and food shipments to Israel, and might urge Hezbollah to conduct such a campaign under certain circumstances.
• Due to the island's strategic importance and political complexity, any strike by Hezbollah against Cyprus would likely embroil multiple actors. Cyprus is situated at a geostrategically important juncture at the crossroads between three continents. The island is divided between the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish-occupied Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognised only by Turkey. A United Nations Buffer Zone separates the two sides. The British military operates two Sovereign Base Areas at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Additionally, the Republic of Cyprus is a European Union member and enjoys mutual defence ties with Greece, so any attack by Hezbollah could plausibly obligate a response from several European countries.

Analysis

• Hezbollah does have the capability to strike Cyprus with missiles. The group is believed to have a large arsenal of highly accurate Iranian-made Fateh surface-to-surface missiles, with ranges from 250 to 1,000 kilometres and 450-kilogram high-explosive warheads. They likely also possess anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles.
• Cyprus lacks dedicated missile and air defence systems but allied military assets could intercept missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This would require coordinated air and missile defence ships, patrolling fighter jets, and timely intelligence. It would take a significant number of missiles and drones to overwhelm these defences.
• It is unclear whether Hezbollah has the intent to follow through with threats against Cyprus. By widening its area of operations to include Cyprus and the surrounding Mediterranean waters, Hezbollah would risk inviting retaliatory strikes by several actors. Escalation with Israel already poses an existential threat to the group's position in Lebanon, so it may wish to avoid antagonising additional parties. In other words, Nasrallah's threats could amount to sabre rattling.



Image credit (top): Alexander Gerst / CC BY-SA 20 / Wikimedia Commons