The situation

On Tuesday 25 June, Ukraine and Moldova began formal negotiations to join the European Union. The two countries applied for EU membership in 2022, soon after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Although the EU has generally supported Ukraine and provided nearly $110 billion in aid,  the journey to EU membership for either nation will be long and challenging.

Nevertheless, European, Ukrainian, and Moldovan politicians have celebrated the formal negotiations as a crucial first step to EU membership.

'Congratulations to Moldova and Ukraine on opening accession negotiations,' said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a post on X. 'This is very good news for the people of Ukraine, Moldova, and the entire European Union. The path ahead will be challenging but full of opportunities.'

Significance

• Membership talks symbolise Ukraine and Moldova's commitment to integrating with the West. In the years since the fall of the Soviet bloc, an increasing number of Eastern and Central Eastern European countries have joined the EU and/or NATO.  For countries in close geographical proximity to Russia and with large Russian-speaking minorities like Ukraine and Moldova, the choice between alignment with Russia and the West has generated contentious domestic political debates. Although these debates remain unsettled (militarily in Ukraine and politically in Moldova), there is added political weight in favour of Western integration.
• Russia perceives EU expansion into Eastern Europe as a threat. Russia has sought to maintain a sphere of influence over former Soviet bloc countries in its 'near-abroad'. The invasion of Ukraine was in part driven by the Kremlin's goal of keeping Kyiv within Moscow's sphere of influence and many analysts have highlighted Russian hybrid warfare in Moldova as a strategy to prevent European integration. Although the initiation of the accession process does not pose significant changes in the short and medium-term future, it does bring Russia closer to a long-term strategic outcome it wishes to avoid.

Assessment

• The Ukrainian and Moldovan EU membership process will be slow and difficult. Both countries are known for high levels of corruption and will have to implement significant reforms to meet the EU's requirements. Countries like Hungary will likely oppose membership or create roadblocks. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and hybrid operations in Moldova will further complicate the process. It is very likely that it will take years for either country to join the EU, if at all.
• The formal membership process affirms European commitment to Ukrainian defence. Despite spending billions on military aid to Ukraine there remain doubts as to how far Europe will support Ukraine if doing so risks further escalation with Russia. Although the EU membership process does not guarantee continued European support, it does suggest that the European bloc will remain committed to Kyiv's survival in the long term. After all, Ukraine needs to maintain its strategic autonomy and sovereignty for membership to remain possible.